International Preview: Ireland v New Zealand,
Soldier Field, Chicago, Saturday, 8.10pm,
Live on Virgin Media TV and TNT Sports
The Rematch indeed. Commercial imperatives have brought Ireland and the All Blacks back to the scene of the breakthrough win nine years ago. Yet, while this latest instalment of the rivalry cannot match the significance of that day, there’s no doubting this game’s importance.
As well as setting the tone for the month ahead, the world rankings will determine the seeding for the 2027 World Cup draw on December 3rd. New Zealand are second, Ireland sit third and with games against Japan, Australia (seventh) and South Africa (first), they must retain their place in the top six to ensure being in the top band of seeds.
Ireland’s playing survivors from that 40-29 win in 2016 are Tadhg Furlong, who was starting just his second Test, and three of the replacements: Finlay Bealham, Josh van der Flier and Garry Ringrose (albeit the latter was unused). For the All Blacks, two of the Barretts, Beauden and Scott, also played, as did Codie Taylor.
“Here, you’d probably catch salmonella off me, I was so raw,” quipped Furlong this week. “Honestly. What age was I? I was 23, was I?” So he was, on both counts.
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Furlong added: “I was a different kind of man, and rugby was different back then as well. It was a different time.”
Having won none of the first 28 meetings between the countries, Ireland have since won five from 10. Including a historic series win in New Zealand and the 2018 and 2023 Grand Slams, Ireland rose to number one in the world on the back of a 17-match winning run which, alas, came to an end with a second successive World Cup quarter-final loss to the All Blacks in that 28-24 epic in Paris.
Since then, Ireland have wobbled, last season’s heavy loss at home to France compounding the limp defeat at home to the All Blacks last November.
Can Ireland upset the odds against New Zealand?
“I don’t think we came to the party that much last year,” admitted Andy Farrell this week, and as they are facing “a world-class All Blacks side”, he admitted they cannot afford to do so again. There were, he added, plenty of lessons to be learned from the loss a year ago.
“When people talk about lack of game time or whatever, mainly it’s game sharpness, and most of that’s mental; switching off, getting yourself into position, giving a penalty away where you’ve lost a few moments, lapses of concentration. Those type of things tend to get sharper as you go.
“We need to realise that early doors with the way that we’ve trained, with the way that we’ve prepared and be ready to be better mentally. Because then I think if you’re in a good place mentally, physically the body will follow. Even if people think we’re underdone slightly because of lack of game time, I don’t believe that. These lads are fit. The challenge is for them to be mentally sharp, to be ahead of the game.”
Such is the context of this latest meeting that, it would seem, both teams are seeking revenge. The All Blacks players have been repeating the mantra of rewriting history, that is, 2016 here. Also, Scott Robertson hasn’t flinched in targeting just a sixth Grand Slam tour against the four home unions, and first since 2010.
The All Blacks are also judged through their habitual winning ratio of 90 per cent or more, but they may never have the kind of golden generation which swept to the 2011 and 2015 World Cups.
The jury is still out on Robertson after two second-placed finishes in the Rugby Championship, especially after the 43-10 loss to South Africa in Wellington; the All Blacks’ heaviest ever defeat.
Yet even in that match, they scored one of the tries of the year, twice going coast-to-coast through six phases, 26 passes and one cross-kick, which was finished by Leroy Carter and demonstrated the kind of high tempo and width they are endeavouring to play.
With Beauden Barrett back at the outhalf helm, and world-class players such as Ardie Savea and Will Jordan, they assuredly can beat anybody. Their ability to strike from counterattacks or transitions, and score two or three tries in quick succession, probably remains unrivalled.
They ought to have a significant advantage in cohesion, especially as no Irish team has ever been so undercooked.
Then again, Ireland look to have the more cohesive coaching ticket as well as a similar mix of proven Test players sprinkled with world-class players in the likes of Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Beirne, Caelan Doris and Jamison Gibson-Park.
Farrell has also had virtually a fortnight to work his magic, and, as Rob Kearney suggests, Leinster’s kick up the rear against Munster might actually prove beneficial.
“We’ve obviously had two different journeys as teams over the last few months and you can look at it both ways,” said Sheehan after Friday’s captain’s run. “Some are fresh, some are battle-hardened, whatever way you look at it. The reality is, it doesn’t matter. Both teams are full of world-class players and professionals that are well able to rock up on a day and put out their best performance. I suppose we’ll see tomorrow, but I don’t think it’ll be a factor.”
A win would be quite a rabbit out of the hat, and a good start is key, as Sheehan also said, but the more this week has progressed the more it has seemed possible.
IRELAND: Jamie Osborne (Leinster); Tommy O’Brien (Leinster), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster), James Lowe (Leinster); Jack Crowley (Munster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Dan Sheehan (Leinster, capt), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster); James Ryan (Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Munster); Ryan Baird (Leinster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Jack Conan (Leinster). Replacements: Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), Paddy McCarthy (Leinster)*, Finlay Bealham (Connacht), Iain Henderson (Ulster), Caelan Doris (Leinster), Craig Casey (Munster), Sam Prendergast (Leinster), Bundee Aki (Connacht).
NEW ZEALAND: Will Jordan; Leroy Carter, Quinn Tupaea, Jordie Barrett, Caleb Clarke; Beauden Barrett, Cam Roigard; Ethan de Groot, Codie Taylor, Fletcher Newell; Scott Barrett (capt), Fabian Holland; Simon Parker, Ardie Savea, Peter Lakai. Replacements: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Tamaiti Williams, Pasilio Tosi, Josh Lord, Wallace Sititi, Cortez Ratima, Leicester Fainga’anuku, Damian McKenzie.
Referee: Pierre Brousset (Fra)
ARs: Karl Dickson (Eng) & Luc Ramos (Fra)
TMO: Ian Tempest (Eng)
FPRO: Dan Jones (Eng)
Forecast: Ireland to win.
