Given its context, tomorrow's Bank of Ireland Ulster football final should be the hardest to call in at least seven years. That context sees two formidable teams which have both improved since last year, when they played out a breathlessly tight provincial semi-final, decided in injury-time. Armagh and Derry have mixed impressive and less impressive displays in Ulster so far, but both will have their realistic advocates.
This fine balance has, however, been disturbed by the problems of Diarmuid Marsden, whose career has been beset by untimely knocks and injuries. Damage to his ankle ligaments jeopardises his participation at any stage of this match. To see him coming off the bench is a familiar enough sight, but even that partial involvement may be denied him tomorrow.
Yet Armagh will harbour some hope because of the form of key players. Cathal O'Rourke is playing his best football in ages, Barry O'Hagan proved unexpectedly adept at filing Marsden's boots the last day and Stephen McDonnell has been a useful newcomer. The McEntees, John in particular, are delivering on their club form with Crossmaglen, and the defence remains solid - with the obvious concerns at full back.
Ger Reid's return to favour owes something to his worthy display on Enda Muldoon last year and something to John Donaldson's difficulties with the equally imposing Stephen Maguire in the Fermanagh match.
Armagh's forwards have the pace and strength which generally worry Derry's defence - time will tell if they have the resilience; because the main ingredient in Derry's success is their ability to wear down opponents. Anthony Tohill is in top form at centrefield, and there were signs in the Antrim replay that his partner, Dermot Heaney, is growing more comfortable in this, his original position.
Derry's forwards are physical, athletic specimens, but they aren't high scoring and generally need a lot of the ball to nail down results. In their favour is a centrefield which can produce that supply.
Marsden was an important influence in Armagh's narrow win over Derry a year ago. In his absence, it's hard to see an improved Derry not finding the extra couple of points to reverse that result.
