The Republic’s population growth continues to outgun the forecasts. The latest official figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) indicate the State’s population increased by 78,300 to 5.46 million in the 12 months to April. This is more likely to be revised up than down even though it’s ahead of where we thought we would be and will soon be pushing toward six million.
As Davy stockbrokers noted, “the level and pace of growth in population this year are considerably higher and faster than recent CSO post-census projections”. The agency’s post-Census 2011 projection had 0.6 per cent growth to 5.03 million, or 425,OOO fewer than the out-turn; the post-census 2016 projection had 0.8 per cent growth to 5.17 million, or 285,000 fewer than the out-turn; and the latest post-Census 2022 projection had 1.3 per cent growth to 5.42 million, or 35,000 fewer than the out-turn.
Davy said it expects population growth at circa 1.5-1.6 per cent a year out to 2030.
The main driver of this stronger-than-expected growth – up to now – has been net inward migration. The latest figures marked the fourth successive year where more than 100,000 people immigrated to the State. The number of people who entered in the 12-month period to April was 125,300, down on previous years but still substantial.
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While net inward migration fell, this was mainly due to a surprising 51 per cent decline in immigration of those aged 45 and older. For the key working-age group 25-44, the figure of 74,000 immigrants was nearly as high as 2023 and 2024.
The record rise in employment here – it stood at 2.8 million in the second quarter, nearly one million up on the 2012 post-crash low – is being facilitated by this immigration inflow, and to a lesser degree by increased participation by the indigenous population.
The increased population is creating a fiscal challenge for the Government with day-to-day spending on services rising at an alarming rate. The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (Ifac) is warning that overruns in day-to-day public spending are likely to top €2 billion this year.
The latest population stats also indicated that net outward migration of Irish nationals continued for a fourth year in a row. Davy said it expected “this could begin to reverse if housing availability improves over the coming years”.
